I have a hard time imagining Republicans nominating Giuliani or Romney, for the obvious reasons that they're transparently phony and were pro-choice until minutes before they formed their campaigns. McCain was the obvious choice, but we all know how that turned out. So they decided "Hey! What about Fred Thompson? Isn't he available or something? I like the pick-up truck he drives sometimes!" But I don't buy that either, or as Fred might say, "That dog won't hunt." By all accounts, Thompson is lazy and dull, which won't serve him well in a hot race for the nomination.

Huckabee's support has jumped since his second place Iowa straw poll finish. I think that a lot of the "anyone but those other assholes" voters were waiting to see who support would coalesce around. Huckabee went from 1% in Iowa to 14% after the straw poll. He's still trailing "those other assholes," but 14% is a top tier number.

The Republican nomination is a big wildcard to me though, and Huckabee still has an uphill climb. So here is my assesment of the points for and against his getting the nomination (Keep in mind, I win $1000 if he gets the nom.)

Pros: Governer of southern state, genuinlyculturally conservative, personable (although he needs to be careful about trying to be too funny. Anyone see him on Colbert?), enjoys good media relationships, and he has momentum after Iowa.

Cons: Economic populism may not be a winner with the GOP, he raised taxes in AR, he doesn't have the money/name ID/organization of those other assholes, he won't STFU about losing 100 lbs, and his son is kind of a handful.

I don't think it's likely that he gets the nomination, but I think he has more than a 3.5% chance, so I took those 30 to 1 odds.

Matt and Todd at MyDD are talking about it over at their places. What do you guys think? Would Huckabee have a better shot in the general than those other assholes? Or are they all doomed to get crushed by the blue wave in 08? Frankly, I think Romney would be the easiest to beat in the general. That guy beats himself

So from the comments, Bill gives us the DU College Repubs, hosted on the College Republican National Committee Website. As Bill points out, it's a pretty weak site: It's just an empty template. It features such gems as:

"The body paragraph is where the meat of the content item is. You can put pictures, charts, graphs, almost anything here. Explore with the editor to see how creative you can be. You can even put in smiley faces -[lame smiley omitted] - or an unsmiley one - [lame unsmiley omitted]."

The only actual content appear to be the footer, which lists the address of the DU repubs as "35XX Hamilton St. Apt 1F." Is that an office? I doubt it. I think I know whose address it is though.

So the search continues. Whoever finds a site with current content wins a pony. Leave your finds in the comments.

Updated again
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Truer text was never written.

The first excerpt is from the lede.

"Now, the area's lone Republican rep is also asking tough questions about the war."

The second is about Sestak.

"...Sestak, a Democrat who represents Media and Drexel Hill, told an audience at the Center for American Progress - a liberal think tank - that calls for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq are unrealistic."

So there's the narrative. Gerlach is a serious congressman, because he's bucking his party and asking "tough" questions and pressing "creative suggestions." Sestak's got the cred to talk about withdrawal as a democrat (he's a retired three-star admiral), but he has to set straight those crazy liberals who are calling for getting 160 thousand troops out of Iraq tomorrow.

The problem? This is the false dichotomy between irresponsible liberals who want all the troops out tomorrow, and responsible republicans who want to get out of Iraq, but only responsibly. In reality, though, those responsible, serious republicans (and their democratic enablers) aren't asking tough questions about how to leave. They're just stalling. They're kicking the can down the road, six months at a time, trying to buy time for Bush to come around (he won't) or for a magical pony to appear in Iraq.

Nobody that I can think of is advocating pulling all the troops out over the weekend. Everyone recognizes the logistical difficulties involved, that would mandate a withdrawal over at least a year. The problem is trying to get the emphasis on leaving, rather than staying while we wait for a pony to appear. Joe Sestak is exactly right when he discusses the logistical difficulties of getting out of Iraq, but to write the story as though liberals are arguing for overnight withdrawal is silly. None of the democratic candidates, not even Gravel, are arguing for a "precipitous" withdrawal. Everyone is arguing that we should FIGURE OUT HOW AND WHEN we will withdraw. Until the debate is about how and why, rather than if, we will be in Iraq indefinantly.

So when Gerlach puts forward his "creative suggestions" and his "tough questions" he isn't doing anything to alleviate the clusterfuck over there. He's just trying to buy himself political cover for this deeply unpopular mess. He's trying to postion himself as a responsible critic, which is a label that the media dishes out generously to hacks and shills alike.

Here is CAP's breakdown of Sestak's appearance. He laid out his vision for how to disengage American forces from the civil war in Iraq, and it's important to hear what he has to say. The fundamental reality that people need to recognize, however, is that until people stop pretending there's still a pony in Iraq, we'll be there forever, six months at a time.

Same shit, different day.

Blogger Novice Addendum:
For people unfamiliar with the pony references, it comes from this. Basically, fools look at Iraq and see a huge pile of shit, and they say "Boy, with all that horse manure, there must be a pony in there!" And so they keep digging.

THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON, IS COMING TO TOWN for a Morning Forum and a Lunch

SEPTEMBER 5 AT THE SHERATON HOTEL, PHILADELPHIA

I invite you to join our committee by becoming a Co-Chair of the Forum (commit to sell 25 tickets), or a Host (commit to sell 10 tickets).

Women's Forum $100 per person
10: 00 AM Registration
10: 30 AM Political Panel tba
11:00 AM Senator Clinton arrives

Luncheon with Senator Clinton $1000 per person, $2300 vip
Includes admission to earlier Women's Forum
12:00 VIP reception, photo and luncheon with Senator Clinton
12:30 Luncheon with Senator Clinton

You are welcome to the lunch if you sell 25 tickets.
You are welcome to the VIP reception and lunch if you sell 50 tickets or contribute $2300.

Invitations and pdfs should be ready by next week.

For more information, or to join us, please email me back at chw307@comcast.net or sfreda@hillaryclinton.com

Thanks so much. Connie Williams