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Saturday, August 11, 2007

Obama and The GOP Straw Poll in Ames

Romney won the GOP straw poll in Ames, Iowa today. It was pretty much a forgone conclusion, as he was the only big campaign competing. He spent several million dollars, and if he had gotten any less than 30% he would be in big trouble. He got 31.6%. Mike Huckabee had the best day, as his second place finish puts him in good place to move into the top tier by the primaries.

But what does Obama have to do with the GOP straw poll? Well,
there's this. In this University of Iowa poll, respondents were asked:

"If the 2008 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for forpresident? Just tell me the name."

So the responses were broken down by self-identified republicans and democrats, and amongst the 355 Republicans, the responses were as follows:

Romney: 21.8%
Giuliani: 10%
Obama: 6.7%
Thompson: 5.2%
Mccain: 1.8%
No other candidate got more than 3%.
This poll has a high margin of error, 5.2%, but it's still suprising to me. Obama has more support amongst Republicans than all but Romney and Giuliani. This doesn't show that Obama is popular amongst Republicans, although he clearly has crossover appeal, as much as it shows how unethusiastic about their field Republicans are.

Bush and the GOP have done such a horrible job running this country, that voter sentiment is strongly against them. In this environment, no up-and-coming Republican politician would want to ruin his career by losing to Hillary/Obama/et al. in 2008. That leaves Republicans with only egomaniacal fools, and tired old men who can't wait any longer.

The Carpetbagger Report has more.